The PwC study, titled Transportation & Logistics 2030 – Securing the supply chain, warns that cyber, piracy and terrorist attacks on globally networked supply chains are expected to rise over the next 20 years. On average, those surveyed by the study said there was a 56 percent probability of a significant rise in targeted attacks on global transport infrastructure. Half of the respondents believed that hacker attacks would cause more damage than physical attacks.

The associated increase in spending on security measures, including corporate IT security, was likely to become “…the most important cost driver in the logistics sector,” the study’s authors said. In addition, there was a 64 percent probability that increasingly stringent security measures would lead to a significant increase in shipment timeframes, and a 61 percent probability that trade routes would need to be changed to prevent attacks.

Klaus-Dieter Ruske, partner and Global Transportation and Logistics Leader at PwC, warned that the supply relationships between producers, suppliers and consumers have become increasingly complex in recent years and therefore also more susceptible to disruption. If only one of the relatively small number of major international transports hubs were to fail, this would have enormous economic consequences worldwide within a short space of time.

According to PwC’s logistics experts, assaults on certain highly frequented “chokepoints” could destabilize the economies of the neighboring countries (49 percent probability). Egypt, for instance, was already losing 640 million US dollars per year through piracy in the Gulf of Aden.

However, most transport-sector experts maintain that such threats will not have a major impact on the world’s transport structures. Only one in three considers it possible to achieve a partial “disentanglement” of global supply chain channels by the year 2030.

The study suggests that countermeasures, such as security checks, will have to be implemented by the logistics companies themselves. Such measures could not be expected from national or cross-border agencies. “Companies have to be pro-active in protecting their supply chains by taking stock of all possible threats and developing suitable countermeasures,” stressed Ruske. These should not just be preventive in nature, but also extend to contingency plans for situations where attacks have been successful. Every company should, for instance, have a list of back-up suppliers that it can quickly activate in the event that any existing suppliers become unavailable. (PwC / ml).